Everton take on Manchester City in the Premier League in a 8:15pm kick-off at Goodison Park on Wednesday.
The Toffees are looking to bounce back from Sunday’s disappointing 2-0 defeat at home to Fulham ahead of what is likely to be a fiery clash at Anfield on Saturday.
City, meanwhile, can move 10 points clear of rivals Manchester United at the top of the table.
Pep Guardiola’s side are heavily backed to do so as odds-on 2/7 favourites, with the draw 9/2 and an Everton win 9/1.
Both sides are missing their top goalscorers through injury in the shape of Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Ilkay Gundogan.
It’s hard to argue with the bookmakers here given that City have now won 11 league matches in a row, as well as their last five meetings against Everton.
Carlo Ancelotti’s side have been dismal at home lately, too, losing three of their last four games to West Ham, Newcastle and Fulham without scoring a goal. The other match in that run was a 1-1 draw with Leicester, during which they were completely dominated by the Foxes and fortunate to gain a point.
As such, I’m amazed to see Man City to win and Both Teams To Score No remain odds-against at 11/10. This is surely worth backing either as a single or in an accumulator ahead of a busy Wednesday night schedule in the footballing world.
To play a little safer with our Bet Builder, though, I’ll back City to win and Under 2 Goals for Everton. City have not conceded more than once since losing 2-0 to Tottenham in early November, while as mentioned Everton are missing their top goalscorer and have scored only one goal in their last four home games.
Given that Everton have received at least one card in each of their last 11 league games, with City’s opponents receiving at least one in 12 of their last 13 league games, I’ll also back the hosts to pick up a card. Referee Andre Marriner is a little more reliable than in the past, having shown at least two cards in 11 of his last 12 Premier League games.
Lastly, to boost the odds a little, I’ll also back Under 5 Goals for Manchester City. They have only hit this mark against West Brom and Burnley this season, while Everton have not conceded more than three goals this season. I could easily see the game petering out if City gain a two-goal lead:
If you’re looking for a bigger price, City to win, BTTS No, 1+ card each team and 4+ City corners is 3/1. Everton’s opponents have received a card in 10 of their last 11 league games, with their opponents also earning 4+ corners in 11 of their last 12 games.
In terms of player bets, Gabriel Jesus has seven goals in his last five games against Everton, so 8/5 (Unibet) is a very good price for the forward to score anytime.
Raheem Sterling has four goals in those games, too, so should also be considered at 7/5 (Sky Bet).
With Gundogan ruled out, Phil Foden could be set for a more central role, increasing the likelihood of him testing Everton’s goalkeeper. He has had at least one shot on target in six of his last seven league starts, so 8/13 and 11/4 (Sky Bet) look good prices for him to do so on one and two occasions respectively given his potential change in role.
Everton’s best hope of scoring may come via set-pieces, with Gylfi Sigurdsson having three shots on target in his last two league games as well as scoring against Tottenham in the FA Cup. 2/1 (Betfair) is a big price for him to test Ederson once.
One man who seems to be racking up the tackles of late for the Toffees is Mason Holgate, having made 15 across his last three league games. If he starts at right-back against Sterling, evens (Sky Bet) for the Everton defender to make 4+ appeals.
Holgate has also been booked in four of his 12 league games this season, implying a 33% chance, so 9/2 (bet365) looks a massive price given his cynical nature and Sterling’s ability to draw fouls.