England take on Denmark at Wembley on Wednesday in the second Euro 2020 semi-final.
The Three Lions are yet to concede a goal at the tournament, having won four and drawn one of their five matches.
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Denmark, meanwhile, are riding a wave of emotion after Christian Eriksen’s cardiac arrest in their opening defeat to Finland, having scored 10 goals in their last three wins to reach this stage.
England are 8/11 favourites to win the match, with the draw 13/5 and a Denmark win 17/4.
I expect the match to be much closer than England’s ludicrously comfortable 4-0 win against Ukraine last time out, but I do fancy Gareth Southgate’s side to edge it in the end.
The Danes looked a little tired in the closing stages of their 2-1 win against Czech Republic in Azerbaijan earlier on Saturday, and the travel could count against them.
They have only kept one clean sheet at Euro 2020 (against Wales) so I’ll start a Bet Builder by backing England to score.
Danny Makkelie officiates at Wembley once again having shown five cards during England v Germany in the last-16.
The Dutch official has been brandishing the cards much more often in recent times, having shown both teams 2+ cards in five of his last six matches and both teams 1+ card each in 18 of his last 20.
I’ll back a card for each team, then, with the stakes surely high enough to see this land, especially now that all cards have been wiped in the tournament.
Lastly, Denmark have been racking up the corners at this tournament, having 7+ in four of their five games. Given that I expect them to be behind at some stage, I’ll back them to have 3+, with only Croatia falling short of this line against England in a very cagey opening game.
If you’re looking for a bigger price, England to win, BTTS – NO, 3+ corners each team & 1+ card each team is 4/1.
Harry Kane is firing on all cylinders once again having scored three goals during the knockout stages, and Sky Bet are offering a superb price of 3/1 for the Tottenham striker to score anytime.
Maximum stakes apply but this is an offer too good to refuse and will pay for a round of drinks or two if it lands!
In terms of player cards, I can’t look beyond Kalvin Phillips and Thomas Delaney from either side really.
They’re both highly combative midfielders and are tasked with pressing the ball ahead of Declan Rice and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg respectively, so I could see them making a cynical challenge at some point, as was the case when they were booked against Germany and Russia respectively earlier in the tournament.
Betfair pay 12/1 for Phillips and Delaney as a double.
Hojbjerg, Luke Shaw, Yussuf Poulsen and Harry Maguire are some other players to consider in this market, with the latter two having a running battle during Denmark’s 1-0 win at Wembley in the Nations League in the autumn.
I like the look of Squawka’s selection on Sky Bet for Kane to score, Raheem Sterling & Joakim Maehle 1+ shot on target each and Mason Mount to make 2+ tackles at 16/1.
Sterling has scored three goals at Euro 2020 while Maehle has had at least one shot on target in four of his five matches, while Mount has made 2+ tackles in all three starts.
I’m surprised to see Maehle still at 9/5 and 12/5 to have 1+ shot on target and 2+ shots respectively (Betfair). Both have landed in four of his five matches, while he has also had 2+ shots on target three times, which is 11/1.
England to score, 1+ card each team & 3+ Denmark corners @ 11/10 (bet365)
Joakim Maehle 2+ shots @ 12/5 (Betfair)
Harry Kane to score anytime @ 3/1 (Sky Bet)
Kalvin Phillips & Thomas Delaney to be carded @ 12/1 (Betfair)
Kane to score, Raheem Sterling & Joakim Maehle 1+ shot on target each & Mason Mount 2+ tackles @ 16/1 (Sky Bet)