Crystal Palace take on Manchester United in the Premier League on Wednesday in an 8:15pm kick-off at Selhurst Park.
Palace can leapfrog Leeds into 11th place in the table by claiming a surprise victory.
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United, meanwhile, will guarantee they stay in 2nd if they win.
Ole Gunnar Solskajer’s side are odds-on 2/5 favourites to win the match, with the draw 15/4 and a Palace win 15/2.
United’s short price is likely geared around their unbeaten run of 20 matches away from home in the Premier League, as well as Palace’s dire performances of late.
They are also still missing the injured Wilfried Zaha, without whom they have failed to score in six of their seven league games this season.
As such, I’m keen on backing United to win alongside opposing goals. 10 of United’s last 12 league games have gone below five goals, with only four of Palace’s games this season going above this mark.
United & Under 5 Goals feels the safe play, then. In order to get more value, I’ll also back Over 1 Card for Both Teams Combined.
This has landed in each of Andre Marriner’s last 10 league games – with eight of the 10 seeing both teams receive at least one card each – and in 21 and 23 of Palace and United’s 26 games respectively:
Man Utd to win, Under 5 Goals for Both Teams Combined, Over 1 Card for Both Teams Combined @ 23/20 (bet365).
If you want a bigger price, back a card for each team instead to receive odds of 2/1.
In terms of player cards, it’s impossible to ignore Luka Milivojevic, with the Palace midfielder booked in three of his last five games and seven times in 18 league starts overall this season.
The Serbian international will likely have a tough time attempting to shackle Bruno Fernandes, so 5/2 (Betfair) seems a fair price.
I’m also very keen on 13/2 (Sky Bet) for Joel Ward to go in Marriner’s book, with the right-back carded three times in 13 starts this season, including in the reverse fixture.
Marcus Rashford should return to United’s left flank with Anthony Martial or Edinson Cavani leading the line, so I could see Ward struggling with Rashford and Luke Shaw down that side of the pitch again.
I like Ward and Milivojevic to be carded and Fernandes to score at 50/1 (Betfair).
Likewise, Betfair have boosted Fernandes and Rashford to have a shot on target each to evens, and 2+ each to 13/2. Rashford has hit this line in his last two starts, with Fernandes doing so 11 times this season. United should get plenty of shooting opportunities against a Palace side likely to find themselves penned in without the pace of Zaha to break out with.
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