The two sides come into the meeting level on points, although City do have two games in hand on their forthcoming opponents.
The bookmakers have Pep Guardiola’s side as 21/20 favourites to win the match, with the draw 13/5 and a Chelsea win 12/5.
It is very rare to see City odds-against, with much of that price probably due to their recent COVID-19 cases in the squad, which led to their game against Everton being postponed.
Gabriel Jesus and Kyle Walker are definitely ruled out due to the virus, with goalkeeper Ederson all but confirmed to be the third of five absent first-team players for the trip to London.
However, Sergio Aguero could be fit to start, which usually spells bad news for Chelsea. The Argentine striker has 15 goals in 20 games against the Blues throughout his legendary career. He’s a good price at 6/4 (Sky Bet) to continue his excellent run against Chelsea, although it would be a surprise to see him last longer than an hour.
With Chelsea conceding in five of their eight home league matches this season and City scoring in five of their seven away games, I fancy City to up the ante today and score at least once. There’s probably value in backing them to win, to be honest.
I’ll also back a card for each side, with both teams picking up at least one card in 10 of their matches this season. Indeed, there is likely to be plenty of tactical fouling, with referee Anthony Taylor showing both teams 1+ card each in seven of his 11 PL games this season.
Lastly, to bring our Bet Builder to an even-money shot, I’ll back City to earn 4+ corners. Eight of Chelsea’s last nine PL matches have seen both teams earn four or more corners, with City hitting this line themselves in 11 of 14 PL matches this season:
If you’re looking for a bigger price, BTTS, 2+ cards each team and 4+ corners each team is 7/1, but be aware that Taylor has not been as card happy in England this season. Still, this line can easily land in a big game.
Bet365 are offering their free in-play bet today (check your account for T&C’s), so it would be rude not to back some player cards.
Ngolo Kante is one booking away from a one-match ban having picked up four this season, and is likely to be tasked with sticking close to Kevin De Bruyne. He leads Chelsea’s tackles and fouls count, so 7/2 (Betfair) is a very good price.
I backed the midfielder alongside Cesar Azpilicueta in Chelsea’s last game against Aston Villa to success, with the right-back likely to have a tough time against Raheem Sterling on Sunday. 9/2 (Bet Victor) is simply far too big for a man booked in two of his five starts this season.
For Leeds v Man City, team selection is obviously more uncertain, but Joao Cancelo and Rodri have both been booked three times this season. Cancelo is likely to come against Timo Werner or Christian Pulisic down Chelsea’s left, with Rodri always susceptible to making a cynical foul. Nathan Ake, Benjamin Mendy and Fernandinho are other players to keep an eye on when the team is announced.
Elsewhere, Kante is 5/6 (Sky Bet) to make 3+ tackles, which remains a generous price considering he has landed this in 11 of his 16 league starts this season and will stick tightly to De Bruyne. The likes of Azpilicueta, Rodri, Cancelo and Mason Mount are other players who regularly hit 2+ tackles.
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