Burnley host Manchester United in the Premier League on Tuesday in a 8:15pm kick-off at Turf Moor.
Sean Dyche’s side have won three of their last five games to move five points clear of the relegation zone, while the Red Devils can move three points clear of Liverpool at the top of the table with a victory.
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West Ham, meanwhile, may fancy a cup run with any relegation concerns out of the equation this season.
Man Utd are odds-on 2/5 favourites to win the match, with the draw 15/4 and a Burnley win 13/2.
United have not even conceded in their last five visits to Turf Moor, winning four and drawing one, so given their incredible away record this season, I fancy them to get the job done.
I don’t expect it to be easy, though, which is backed up by the fact three of those four wins were 2-0 and the other was a narrow 1-0 victory.
Based on recent history you would back a United clean sheet, but they have not kept any in their seven away matches this season, while Burnley have scored in each of their last four home games after a slow start to the season.
However, Dyche’s side have only scored more than once in two of their 15 PL games this season, so I am happy to back a Man Utd win alongside Under 2 Goals for Burnley.
Kevin Friend officiates the clash at Turf Moor, meanwhile, with each of the 49-year-old’s last six PL games seeing fewer than three cards brandished.
Indeed, 11 of Friend’s 14 PL matches behind closed doors have seen under three cards for both teams combined land, so in order to gain more value I’m also going to back Under 3 Cards for Burnley and Under 3 Cards for Man Utd:
This fixture has been a bit spiky in recent times, but neither side are receiving or drawing a huge amount of cards this season, so I’m hoping the fact that Friend is in charge will also help this bet land. There were only two cards shown (both for Burnley) in the last meeting, too.
In terms of player bets, Anthony Martial has scored in each of his three appearances at Turf Moor, so 31/20 (Unibet) for the forward to score looks a decent price. Fernandes nearly always delivers away from home, too, with Friend awarding three penalties in his nine PL games this season, so 6/5 for the attacking midfielder to score and 6/4 for him to have 2+ shots on target (both Betfair) are well-priced.
Player cards probably aren’t worth delving too deeply into with Friend in charge, but like I said, this game has been spiky on occasion in the past. One player who I was surprised to see has been carded four times in this fixture is Charlie Taylor, although the left-back is an injury doubt. 11/2 (Bet Victor) looks a big price should he start, with 13/5 (bet365) also big on Phil Bardsley, with the former United right-back also carded on four occasions for Burnley against the Red Devils.
Ashley Westwood (18/5, Bet Victor) must also be considered given he has been booked in two of his last three league games as well as in the last meeting between these sides.
One price I am slightly surprised by is Ashley Barnes to have a shot on target at 10/11 (Betfair), with the Burnley striker testing the opposition goalkeeper five times in his last three league games (including a goal against Wolves). Barnes has scored twice against United, too (albeit both times at Old Trafford), so if he gets a sniff he’ll fancy his chances.
I’m also quite keen on James Tarkowski to make 3+ tackles at 5/4 (Sky Bet), with the central defender landing this in three of his last four league games. He will probably have the likes of Martial, Fernandes and Bruno Rashford in close vicinity to him, so the England international could be in for a busy evening.
Fred and Fernandes are also worth keeping an eye on in this market as both tend to land 3+ and 2+ tackles respectively more often than not, although both are odds-on to do so against a Burnley side who may not offer as much attacking threat as we would want for these bets to land.