Brighton host Southampton in the Premier League on Monday in a 8pm kick-off at the Amex Stadium.
After last weekend’s creditable 1-1 draw at home to Liverpool, Brighton can move above Arsenal into 15th place in the table by beating their south coast rivals.
Southampton, meanwhile, squandered a 2-0 lead at home to Manchester United in their last match, losing 3-2 to the Red Devils. A win at Brighton would take them above their most recent opponents into fifth in the table, though.
Brighton are marginal 31/20 favourites to win the match, with the draw 12/5 and a Southampton win 17/10.
Personally, I’m surprised to see Brighton as favourites here and would have had these odds roughly the other way around to be honest.
Indeed, Brighton have won just one of their last 14 league matches at home, with Southampton losing only once on the road in 10 league matches since Project Restart.
Admittedly there are quite a few draws thrown in both of those respective runs (seven for Brighton, four for Southampton), so a share of the points on Monday would be little surprise.
I’m keen to get Southampton on side in the double chance market, then, while backing Over 1 Goals for Both Teams Combined. 80% of those 14 home matches for Brighton and 10 away matches for Southampton have seen over one goal scored at either end, with both teams to score landing more than 60% of the time, too.
To bring our Bet Builder above evens, I’ll back Over 0 Cards for Both Teams Combined. David Coote officiates tonight and he has shown at least one card in his last 20 matches in all competitions, averaging 3.6 yellow cards in his five Premier League games so far this season.
It remains to be seen whether Neal Maupay and Danny Ings return from injury to start in attack for their respective sides, with both reported to have returned to training earlier this week.
Both strikers certainly like a shot, though, hitting the target twice in a game on three occasions this season. Che Adams has done this four times, meanwhile, with Maupay, Ings and Adams 2+ shots on target each paying 25/1 (Betfair) in what should be a fairly open encounter.
I’m quite keen on a Yves Bissouma yellow card, too, at 29/10 (Bet Victor).
Five opposing central midfielders have been booked in Southampton’s 10 games this season, with the Saints routinely overloading the central areas in their 4-2-2-2 shape. Bissouma has been booked three times in nine matches this season, averaging 3.2 tackles and 2 fouls per game.
Doubling the Malian midfielder up with Oriol Romeu (who also has three bookings this season) pays 11/1 (Betfair).
A few players are of interest in Sky Bet’s tackles markets, including Bissouma.
He has made 17 tackles in his last three starts, hitting four or more in each of them, with it 11/8 that he does so again.
Solly March (4+ last two starts) and Kyle Walker-Peters (3+ last three starts) both average around 2.5 tackles per game and could have a good tussle down the same flank, while James Ward-Prowse has made 3+ tackles in six of his ten starts this season (his midfield partner Romeu would have been preferred but his bar has been set a little too high for my liking).
Those three players are odds-against to land 3+ across the 90 mins.
Moussa Djenepo has made 3+ tackles in his last three starts, too, and could have a busy evening up against Tariq Lamptey. 11/8 for the winger to make 3+ tackles and 16/5 (Betfair) for him to be booked both look good, with Ryan Bertrand 9/2 (Sky Bet) to become the fifth left-back carded against Lamptey this season.
Danny Welbeck has made five tackles in his last two starts, meanwhile, making odds of 11/4 for the former England international making 2+ once again look quite generous.