Brighton take on Crystal Palace in the Premier League on Monday in a 8pm kick-off at the Amex Stadium.
There is little love lost between these two clubs in a rivalry which is nicknamed the ‘A23 Derby’ due to the road connecting south London to Sussex.
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Brighton can leapfrog Palace in the table by beating them, too, with both clubs having lingering relegation fears this season.
The Seagulls are odds-on 8/11 favourites to win the match, with the draw 12/5 and a Palace win 9/2.
Given that Graham Potter’s side have only won once at home in the league all season, their odds certainly look on the skinny side, but are likely geared by their impressive underlying numbers, recent upturn in form, and the absence of the injured Wilfried Zaha for the visitors.
Indeed, Roy Hodgson’s side have played five league games without their top goalscorer this season, losing each of them without scoring by an aggregate scoreline of 0-12.
To make matters worse, Brighton have only conceded once while remaining unbeaten in their last six league games, so I’m happy to back Under 2 Goals for Crystal Palace.
Brighton have only scored four goals themselves in those six games, though, while Palace are rarely disgraced in defeat, so I’ll also back Under 4 Goals for Both Teams Combined.
Given the fact it is a derby of sorts, I’ll also back Over 1 Card for Both Teams Combined. This has landed in each of the seven Premier League meetings between the two sides in recent years.
With Kevin Friend officiating that’s as far as I’ll go in terms of cards, though, with the 49-year-old showing fewer than four cards in each of his last 11 PL games.
To boost our Bet Builder, I’ll also back Over 3 Corners for Brighton. Potter’s side have hit this mark in every home game this season, with Palace’s opponents hitting this mark in every away game:
Under 4 Goals, Under 2 Goals for Brighton, Over 1 Card, Over 3 Corners for Brighton @ 4/5.
If you’re looking for a bigger price, Brighton to win, Under 4 Goals, 1+ card each team and 5+ corners for Brighton is 4/1.
In terms of player cards, it’s impossible not to be drawn to Yves Bissouma and Luka Milivojevic given that both holding midfielders have been booked six times in the league this season and are the sort of characters who are naturally drawn to any fiery incidents.
The double pays an appealing 15/1 with Betfair.
Joel Veltman and Dan Burn (9/2 and 7/2 respectively at Unibet) are two other players who appeal as they are likely to be up against Eberechi Eze and Jordan Ayew respectively, with both Palace attackers capable of dribbling and drawing a foul in transition.
Elsewhere, I’m surprised to see Alexis Mac Allister odds-against at 6/5 (Betfair) to have 3+ shots after taking six against Aston Villa and seven against Tottenham in Brighton’s last two home games.
With Leandro Trossard registering five shots on target in his last five games, 11/4 (Betfair) on the attacking midfielder testing Vincent Guaita twice also appeals. Doubling this up with Mac Allister gives a nice 9/1 shot for a bit of interest.
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