Politics

Brexit: Will there be a second referendum? Latest Odds suggest its a long way off

Published

4 years ago

2nd September 2019

With PM Boris Johnson shutting down Parliament just weeks before the Brexit deadline, some bookies are now offering evens on a No Deal Brexit.

Yet 64% of punters are happy to take 12/1 on there being a second referendum to prevent the UK leaving the EU on 31 October.

Although the odds are currently against the so-called People’s Vote, newly galvanised rebel Tory MPs who label Johnson’s actions deeply undemocratic are confident they can push through emergency legislation to stop no deal within the relatively short time frame.

While Ladbrokes are increasingly confident that the UK will crash out of the EU, punters who believe there will be no second referendum are just 34% of those putting money on the Brexit endgame.

Paddy Power and BetFair are among bookies have been forced to slash the odds on the UK making a no deal exit, while the odds on a second referendum continue to drift with BetFair and BetFred currently offering 12/1.

It’s the same picture with political free bets Paddy Power who are offering 1/1 on a no deal.

It’s an incredibly volatile market that has swung to both extremes as the increasingly complex picture as to what Brexit means and what PM Johnson is prepared to do to make it happen emerges.

Back in April, the odds on a second referendum shortened dramatically after the EU offered then PM May an extension to the deadline.

As Jessica Elgot, chief political correspondent of the Guardian points out, Johnson’s suspension of parliamentary proceedings means Parliament will likely only lose 5-6 sitting days but with the timeframes tightening before 31 October, the markets are shifting towards no deal and away from the idea of giving the public a second say, a vote some analysts say would be decisively won by Remain.

The smartest money is currently on a vote of no confidence in the Johnson government with PaddyPower offering 1/14 or a 93% probability that the new PM’s position will be put to the test.

What’s clear is that the next week will be crucial in the battle for Brexit.