Connect with us

Featured

Cards markets – How to do it and how to analyse the stats

Published

on

Photo credit: sportgraphic/123RF.COM

There’s been a shift away from ever-popular markets such as match odds, handicaps and over/under lines with more modern incarnations such as bet builders, specials and cards-based betting hogging the headlines, the latter of which has caught the imagination of sharp punters.

Frustratingly, despite the growing interest, only a selection of leading bookmakers cover the evolving cards markets in-depth and there’s often little unification between the brands offerings. Nevertheless, that uniqueness can often play into our hand when evaluating the strength of the selection in question and, obviously the most important aspect, the price.

Being knowledgeable about football isn’t a pre-requisite for punting success.

However, finding a specialist market and niche area within the game is often a strong avenue to beating the market. With bookmakers still putting the bulk of their time and data science into perfecting their traditional markets, cards can often be left unloved and open to attack.

Successful bettors can therefore take advantage of the advantageous odds in a newly-formed cards market, finding it easier to spot discrepancies. Additionally, an analytical approach is more reliable for betting on cards compared to the aforementioned major markets due to the low-scoring nature of the sport we all adore.

Betting on Cards : The importance of the referee

Rarely will I pull the plug on a cards-based punt if the referee overseeing the action isn’t prolific for distributing cautions. The men in black really are the stars of the show; after all, it’s the official in charge who makes the decisions and calls the shots.

Unless you’re going against the grain and supporting a tame encounter, leniency is your enemy. Sites such as Transfermarkt and WorldFootball.net give you easy-to-read overviews on individual referees and their records for dishing out yellow and red cards, as well as penalties, making it easier to pre-judge the characteristics of your referee.

Ensure you take a solid sample of at least 15 games before jumping to conclusive conclusions about the temperament of your official. If you’re looking for a bit more meat on the bone, WhoScored share more detailed information on fouls per-game and tackles per-foul for the major leagues they cover, which are also worthwhile strands to consider.

Referee appointments are made relatively early in the UK so check the official Premier League, EL and Scottish FA sites for the latest assignments. It’s a trickier affair when delving into Europe but WorldFootball.net and Soccerway tend to display the details a good 48 hours before kick-off.

Betting on Cards: Card-killers

Whereas derby dates and high-stakes showdowns regularly lead us towards a higher card count, low-scoring fixtures can often do the opposite, in particular goalless games. The intensity of chasing (or defending) a lead can contribute towards increased tension and more severe challenges and so one-sided matches are also considered card-killers.

Continuing that theme, heavy favourites don’t often produce a flurry of cautions – naturally, underdogs are the more likely receivers seeing as they will likely have to chase the ball and therefore put in more tackles (and likely) fouls in comparison to a club in control.

Betting on Cards: How to attack the cards markets

Unlike major markets where distinguishable inputs are required to produce a tissue price, there are basic calculations that can help give punters guide data when it comes to cards. For starters, there are several sites that display season-long card counts that are easy to translate into per-game averages. These can be utilised to cover teams, players and refs.

As well as standard cards per-game figures, we can also work out Bookings Points returns for clubs and officials using the same data. If you’re new to Bookings Points, 10 Bookings Points are distributed for a yellow card with 25 Bookings Points assigned for a red card – a total of 35 Bookings Points are awarded for two yellow cards that lead to a sending off.

Once we’ve worked out game-by-game averages for a particular side, the two teams on show and/or the referee in question, we can start comparing the figures with the market. With a stringent official in charge and two hot-headed squads on show, a high card count could be in the offing. For clarity, standard Over/Under card lines in the UK tend to be 3.5.

Obviously, there’s a whole realm of individual player options to consider too. Stats such as average tackles per-game, fouls per-game, plus tactical set-ups and opposition players in direct competition should be considered before pulling the trigger. For example, defenders up against skilful opponents such as Wilfried Zaha and Jack Grealish are vulnerable here.

Quite often, pulling together raw and unscientific guide prices can lead you towards an unheralded player punt. Take your player, check out his average cards-per-minute figure and compare it with the odds. If there is a discrepancy, drill down further to understand the dynamics of the game, the referee and the tactical brief do complete the picture.

Finally, it’s worth trumpeting the virtues of in-play cards betting. Few firms offer odds once the game is underway but it’s still worth shopping around to find a venue that does. Watch the referee’s behaviour and keep an eye on players that are on final warnings or building up a collection of fouls, whilst time-wasting can also come into play late on.

Cards betting is a great alternative for punters looking for a dispassionate rollercoaster ride. Diligent research is key and here it can often give bettors a slight edge over the market, and that’s the holy grail in this game.

Football betting analyst having written for a number of publications, including| welovebetting.co.uk, Asian Handicap specialists Eastbridge bookmakers and Matchbook.

Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Latest News

©zhukovsky/123RF.COM ©zhukovsky/123RF.COM
News2 days ago

Andy Murray vs John Isner Live Streaming from Wimbledon Tennis Tournament

Britain’s favourite tennis player Andy Murray is back in action today at Wimbledon as he takes on the big serving...

©zhukovsky/123RF.COM ©zhukovsky/123RF.COM
Betbuilder4 days ago

What TV channel is the Andy Murray v James Duckworth match on?

Sir Andy Murray has been one of the most successful players on the ATP World tour; he has won a...

©zhukovsky/123RF.COM ©zhukovsky/123RF.COM
News5 days ago

Wimbledon 2022 : Watch Novak Djokovic vs Soonwoo Kwon live stream

Novak Djokovic takes on Soonwoo Kwon in the mens first round game at Wimbledon. Here’s how you can watch the...

©zhukovsky/123RF.COM ©zhukovsky/123RF.COM
News5 days ago

How to watch Emma Raducanu live streaming at Wimbledon

Alison Van Uytvanck takes on Emma Raducanu in the first round at Wimbledon today with the match live streaming from...

Gemma love island odds Gemma love island odds
TV Specials2 weeks ago

Love Island Odds – Do you know this about Gemma?

With no major men’s football tournament taking place this summer, Love Island is sure to dominate plenty of households’ television...

boris johnson boris johnson
Politics3 weeks ago

Next Conservative Leader Odds (Price SLASHED on this candidate)

Boris Johnson continues to lead the Conservative Party but with two key by elections coming and a potential plot by...

italy italy
Football3 weeks ago

What TV Channel is the Italy v Hungary game on?

On Tuesday evening, Italy will take on Hungary in their second game of the 2022-23 Nations League. The match will...

Football4 weeks ago

Bernardo Silva to Barcelona – done deal?

As one of the top players in the Premier League, it’s no surprise that Bernardo Silva is being eyed by...

Football4 weeks ago

James Milner signs new deal with Liverpool

Liverpool midfielder James Milner has signed up for a new deal at Anfield which will keep him on Merseyside until...

Gemma love island odds Gemma love island odds
TV Specials1 month ago

Michael Owen’s Daughter odds shorten on Love Island Success

It’s that time of year again where love is in the air…or at least on our screens. Love Island is...

djokovic live streaming news djokovic live streaming news
Tennis1 month ago

French Open Rafael Nadal v Novak Djokovic TV Channel and Live Broadcast

Rafael Nadal takes on Novak Djokovic in the Quarter Finals of the French Open as these two tennis heavyweights battle...

huddersfield v nottingham forest huddersfield v nottingham forest
Football1 month ago

How to watch Nottingham Forest v Huddersfield Town Playoff on TV

Its one of the biggest games of the footballing calendar as the Championship playoff Final between Nottingham Forest and Huddersfield...

Football1 month ago

How to get 80/1 Bet Builder on Liverpool v Real Madrid

Liverpool take on Real Madrid in the Champions League playoff final and we have a scintillating bet builder tip for...

port vale v mansfield port vale v mansfield
Football1 month ago

How to watch Port Vale v Mansfield League Two playoff on TV

Wembley Stadium once again hosts a weekend of playoffs as League Two sides Port Vale and Mansfield Town take the...

french open quarter final nadal french open quarter final nadal
Tennis1 month ago

Rafael Nadal v Botic van de Zandschulp Live Streaming from French Open

Rafael Nadal, the five-time champion at the French Open, will take on Botic van de Zandschulp of the Netherlands in...

We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose. If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org. Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.


Copyright © 2022 Whataretheodds.co.uk
About Us | Contact Us | Authors | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Terms and Conditions| Help & FAQ |

All odds are correct at time of publishing and are subject to change.