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Two European giants meet in the Champions League Quarter Finals in the rather unusual surroundings of Lisbon, looking to progress to more standard territory of competition semi-finals.

These two sides are serial winners both domestically and in Europe over the years, however it’s certainly Bayern who are in better overall shape looking ahead to the short and medium term future unless the Barcelona squad is injected with some investment to improve its general quality levels.

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New Customers only. Up to £100 in Bet Credits. Sign up, deposit £5 or more to your account and bet365 will match your qualifying deposit in Bet Credits when you place qualifying bets to the same value and they are settled. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs, time limits & exclusions apply.

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The first part of this bet builder is covering goals and over 1.5 looks a pretty safe line to include.

Barcelona games in La Liga this season have averaged 3.26 goals, with Bayern’s in the Bundesliga even higher at 3.88 – both the highest totals in their respective divisions. Six of Barcelona’s last seven Champions League games have seen over 1.5 goals whilst 17 of Bayern’s last 18 fixtures in the competition have featured two or more goals and with so much attacking talent on the pitch, you’d be confident of this part landing with relative ease.

I’m struggling to see Bayern losing this contest in 90 minutes to be honest, or even over 120 if it goes that far. The Bavarians have won 18 games in a row in all competitions, a remarkable feat no matter the opposition and their consistency, as well as the unwavering winning mentality in their squad can’t really be matched by any other side left in the competition.

Since Hans Dieter Flick took charge of the team following Niko Kovac’s ill-fated reign as boss, his team have scored an eye-watering 104 goals in just 33 matches, an average of 3.15 per game.

With Robert Lewandowski, Serge Gnabry, Joshua Kimmich, Leo Goretzka, Thomas Muller and Alphonso Davies amongst others all enjoying the best seasons of their career, that can hardly come as too much of a surprise and the Germans are the type of side that, even with a 1 goal lead, they won’t let up in the pursuit of goal numbers two, three and maybe more.

Barcelona meanwhile have seemingly been in crisis mode all season with there being little to no faith amongst the supporter base and in the boardroom in Head Coach Quique Setien who will likely be shown the door unless Barca win the final in Lisbon at the end of August.

The players don’t seem to be behind the manager, they’re playing some turgid football which isn’t getting anyone out of their seats and there are question marks over whether next season will be Lionel Messi’s final one at the club. The Bayern/draw selection therefore gets the Reds onside with a little bit of compensation in case they don’t quite have enough to win over 90 minutes.

On the fouls front, the over 11.5 Barca free-kicks is a part stats and part tactical based inclusion.

The Catalans have been fouled 13.9 times per match on average in their domestic contests across 2019/20 and they’ve earned 12 or more free-kicks in their last 14 matches across all competitions.

With Barca expected to see the majority of the ball here, using their patient build-up approach under Setien to find a way through Bayern’s backline, Flick’s men could resort to a few fouls to stop Barca threading play through the lines to the danger men Messi and Suarez.

There are question marks around the shape Barcelona could line up with here but given the frequency in which the team are fouled and the referee in charge (Skomina has given 60 fouls in his two Champions League matches this season), I don’t think the starting teams will make too much of a difference to the chances of this part being successful.

Bet Builder (Bet365) – Over 1.5 Match Goals; Bayern Win/Draw and Over 11.5 Barcelona Free-Kicks – 20/21

 

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