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Hi folks, Tom Love here, hoping to get your weekend off to a winning start! Saturday’s betbuilder comes in the Crystal Palace vs Watford clash.
Selhurst Park hasn’t been the place to go to if you’re wanting to see goals this season.
Local lad Roy Hodgson has done a great job keeping a rather mediocre looking squad away from imminent danger.
He’s done so largely by occupying a defensive set-up with organisation at the forefront.
They’re happy to let teams have the ball in front of them and their average possession is one of the lowest in the league.
It has to be said, the Eagles have rode their luck this season mind. They rank as bottom five fodder on the expected goals (xG) metric and have gained points here and there that they probably didn’t deserve on the balance of play.
However, if you can keep games tight and low scoring you have every chance of staying up.
Watford managed to be the first team to oust Liverpool this season and it was a deserved win for the hornets.
They’ll come into this with confidence but the space in behind for the likes of Roberto Pereyra and Ismaila Sarr is unlikely to be there against a low Palace block.
Opposing goals therefore looks a good place to start, especially as these two are bottom four for goals scored this season.
There are some tricky players on the park though in the aforementioned Sarr and Wilfred Zaha.
Even though Palace average 46% possession, they’re the 2nd most fouled team in the league.
Watford tank as the third highest for committing fouls so we could see some cards for the away side and right back Kiko Femenia could be in for a torrid time against Zaha.
Watford average 2 cards per game away from home and given how often Palace get fouled I’d imagine that record will carry on.
Palace themselves average 1.85 cards at home and they’ll be eager to at least get another point to keep them at arms length from the drop. We will therefore add the hosts to have over 0 cards and the visitors to have over 1 card to boost the betbuilder.
Finally I’m happy to throw in both teams to have over 2 corners in the match.
Palace like to get the ball wide to Zaha and try run at the full backs which usually leads to corners.
Both average comfortably over 4 per game and concede at least 5 on average. With the wingers on show it shouldn’t be too much of a problem.
Betbuilder – Under 4 goals, Crystal Palace over 0 cards, Watford over 1 card, both teams over 2 corners – 8/5 (bet365 BetBuilder)