Reigning champions Bayern Munich have certainly not had things all of their own way this season, finding themselves seventh in the Bundesliga table and seven points behind top spot after 14 matches as they head into the weekend’s home fixture against Werder Bremen.
Regardless, Bayern are heavily expected to dominate proceedings against a side currently in 14th place in the table, and are priced accordingly at an odds-on 1/7 to pick up the three points.
The draw is 8/1, with what would represent a huge Werder Bremen upset 14/1.
While these lopsided odds may reflect the difference in quality between the two sides, they certainly don’t reflect Bayern’s recent domestic form.
The Bavarians have lost two of their last four league matches at the Allianz Arena, showing they are more prone to an upset than in previous years.
Werder Bremen, meanwhile, have lost just twice on the road in the Bundesliga this season.
However, dig a little deeper and the odds begin to make more sense: Bayern have astonishingly won the last 20 meetings in all competitions between the two sides.
Not since 2010 have Werder Bremen avoided defeat against the German giants, when they drew 0-0 at the Allianz.
Moreover, Bayern had the luxury of resting their talismanic striker Robert Lewandowski in the 3-1 victory over Tottenham in the Champions League in midweek, a result which incidentally meant they were impressively the only side to finish with a maximum 18 points in this season’s group stage.
Despite Bayern’s mixed form domestically, Lewandowski is enjoying perhaps his greatest ever season with a phenomenal 16 goals in 14 league games so far.
Unsurprisingly, you can only get odds of 1/4 on him to score once again here. He’s 6/4 to open the scoring, and just 3/1 to score a hat-trick.