Norwich make the short trip to South Yorkshire to take on Barnsley at Oakwell, in what is one of three all-Championship ties in the FA Cup fourth round.
In fact, this is the reverse of a fixture that was played just three weeks ago at Carrow Road – a game in which today’s visitors ran out 1-0 victors.
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That game was the start of a 3-game losing streak in the league for today’s hosts, who’ve now failed to score a single goal against Championship opposition for almost 6 hours.
The good news for the Tykes is that those defeats all came against sides currently residing in the Championship’s top three positions, the bad news for the Tykes is today’s opponents are the Canaries sitting atop the tree who boast one of the league’s best defences.
Best Barnsley v Norwich Bet:
Norwich have conceded just 21 goals in their 25 league games this season, and only three in their last seven in all competitions.
That defensive record is a lot better than their underlying metrics say it should be, with Ben Mayhew’s expected goals league tables suggesting they have conceded 10.8 goals fewer than what would be expected over the course of the season so far.
That being said, it makes no difference when your opponents simply aren’t creating the chances. Barnsley haven’t registered an expected goals rate over 1.0 in the Championship so far in 2021, whilst Norwich haven’t allowed their opponents to create more than 1.0 – restricting Bristol City to just 0.1xG in their last game.
Daniel Farke’s side are the best travellers in the league (winning 8 of 12 games) and absolutely dominate their games with the Tykes. City have lost just one of their last 16 head-to-head matchups with Barnsley, and haven’t tasted defeat at Oakwell since 2016.
They’ve won 11 of the other 15 games, and managed to hold their South Yorkshire opponents scoreless in 53% of those games.
As far as betting is concerned, Norwich aren’t to be sniffed at 7/5 away from home but I’m going elsewhere with my money.
I like the look of Norwich 0.5 First Half Goals at 11/10 with bet365. Of the 14 goals the Canaries have scored away from home since drawing 1-1 at Brentford in October, 10 (71.4%) have come within the first 45 minutes – with 90% of those coming in the first 30.