AC Milan take on Manchester United in the Europa League last-16 on Thursday in a 8pm kick-off at San Siro.
Milan scored an injury-time away goal to draw 1-1 at Old Trafford last week, with the balance of the tie shifted in their favour.
However, the bookmakers have United as even-money favourites to win on the night and odds-on 8/15 favourites to progress.Milan are 13/5 to win and 11/8 to qualify, with the draw also 13/5. Only a 1-1 draw would see the match go to extra-time and penalties.
Milan were the better side in the first leg, having two goals disallowed in the first half as they dominated possession.
United improved after the break, though, with Amad Diallo scoring his first goal for the club since joining in January.
I fancied both teams to score in that match and I do again, with neither side particularly convincing defensively.
Only strugglers Torino and Crotone have failed to score away to Milan in their last nine home league games, with BTTS landing in six of their eight home games in the Europa League this season.
BTTS landed in each of United’s three away Champions League group stage games, too.
Experienced German referee Felix Brych takes charge of this match, with the 45-year-old showing both teams at least one card each in 11 of his last 15 elite level matches.
Brych presided over four Champions League games this season, showing each team at least one card in al four, and each team two or more in three of them.
He has officiated 33 knockout CL and EL matches in his career, averaging 4.58 cards per game in them. Interestingly, 10 of those were red cards, with eight coming in his last 16 CL knockout ties, making 7/2 (bet365) for a red card in the match seem decent value.
In terms of our Bet Builder, though, I’m keeping it simple by backing BTTS and 1+ card each team at 6/5 (bet365). This landed in the first leg and I think it can again providing Milan can sustain some attacking momentum at some point in the game.
In terms of player cards, Theo Hernandez and Frank Kessie have been carded eight and seven times in Serie A respectively this season, with both best-priced with Sky Bet at 21/10 and 3/1.
Fred, Luke Shaw and Harry Maguire are always candidates for Man Utd, meanwhile, but there’s not a great deal of value about in all honesty.