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Will Dwayne Johnson Be Nominated for Best Actor? Odds Slashed to 4/11
Dwayne Johnson’s odds to be nominated for Best Actor at the 2026 Oscars have been slashed to 4/11 following a 15-minute standing ovation for The Smashing Machine at the Venice Film Festival. Dave James looks at the full nominations market.
Last Updated 2 months ago
🕒 Last Updated: 4 September 2025 — Odds correct at time of writing. These reflect pre-awards season markets following the Venice Film Festival.
Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson is emerging as a serious contender for Hollywood’s top honour after odds on him being nominated for Best Actor at the 2026 Academy Awards were dramatically slashed to 4/11.
The 53-year-old action star turned dramatic actor broke down in tears on Tuesday night as his latest film, The Smashing Machine, received a thunderous 15-minute standing ovation at the Venice Film Festival. Johnson’s raw and emotional portrayal of former wrestler and MMA fighter Mark Kerr has been hailed as a career-defining performance, and bookmakers now see him as one of the strongest favourites heading into awards season.
Starring opposite Emily Blunt, who plays Kerr’s girlfriend Dawn Staples, Johnson’s transformation has stunned critics, many of whom had previously doubted whether the former WWE superstar could transition into heavyweight dramatic roles. Industry experts suggest that if Johnson secures a nomination, it would mark one of the most remarkable evolutions in recent Hollywood history.
Speaking on the latest betting shifts, Dave James, odds analyst at WhatAreTheOdds.co.uk, said: “Bookmakers have been forced to react quickly to the overwhelming buzz around Johnson’s performance. Slashing his nomination odds to 4/11 makes him the standout frontrunner. This isn’t just a crowd-pleasing role — it has the depth and emotional range that Academy voters love.”
James added: “If Johnson does go on to win, it would be one of the most extraordinary journeys in Oscars history — from WWE to the Academy Awards stage.”
| Outcome | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| YES | 4/11 | 73.3% |
| NO | 13/8 | 26.7% |
Predicted Best Actor Nominations
Dwayne Johnson — The Smashing Machine (4/11)
Jesse Plemons — Bugonia
Wagner Moura — The Secret Agent
Oscar Isaac — Frankenstein
Timothée Chalamet — Marty
With the awards season build-up now in full swing, Johnson’s chances of finally stepping onto the Oscars stage look more likely than ever. For the wider box office picture heading into awards season, see our highest grossing film of 2025 odds.
