The race for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize is heating up, with Donald Trump now the second favourite after his odds were cut to 5/2 (28.6%).
The former U.S. President has received a formal nomination from Israel, citing his role in brokering the Abraham Accords, which normalised relations between Israel and several Arab nations.
The nomination has reignited debate about Trump’s legacy on the global stage and sent ripples through the betting markets.
Leading the field is Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who tragically died in prison earlier this year.
Her odds of 6/4 (40%) reflect widespread support for her continued campaign for democratic reform and human rights in Russia.
Navalnaya’s profile has grown dramatically, and many view her as a symbol of resistance against authoritarianism.
Dave James, odds analyst at Whataretheodds.co.uk, said:
“Trump’s nomination has shifted the dynamics completely. He’s a divisive figure, but the Abraham Accords remain a substantial diplomatic achievement. While Yulia Navalnaya continues to lead the market, Trump’s movement in the odds suggests real momentum behind his candidacy.”
Other notable names include Volodymyr Zelenskyy at 9/2 (18.2%), still recognised for his leadership of Ukraine during wartime, and Antonio Guterres (UN Secretary-General) at 17/2 (10.5%), with continued focus on global diplomacy. Climate activist Greta Thunberg and humanitarian chef José Andrés are also in contention at 10/1 (9.1%).
With speculation building ahead of October’s announcement, the field remains wide open, though current betting suggests this could become one of the most politically charged Peace Prizes in recent history.
| Candidate | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Yulia Navalnaya | 6/4 | 40.0% |
| Donald Trump | 5/2 | 28.6% |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 9/2 | 18.2% |
| Antonio Guterres | 17/2 | 10.5% |
| Greta Thunberg | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| José Andrés | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| NATO | 14/1 | 6.7% |
| UN High Commissioner for Refugees | 17/1 | 5.6% |
| Julian Assange | 18/1 | 5.3% |
| David Attenborough | 20/1 | 4.8% |
