Politics
Keir Starmer odds to Leave in 2025 Slashed to 5/1, with 70% of Bets Now on Labour Leader to Step Down This Year
The odds on Sir Keir Starmer leaving his post as Labour leader in 2025 have been cut to 5/1, amid growing speculation over his long-term future.
Bookmakers report that 70% of all bets placed in the past week are backing Starmer to depart within the year – a significant shift just weeks after Labour’s landslide election victory.
The latest market sees “2029 or later” remain the most likely outcome at 6/4 (40%), suggesting a belief that Starmer will serve a full term or more.
But the sharp rise in bets on a 2025 exit (now at a 16.7% implied probability) points to mounting uncertainty – possibly driven by internal party pressures, public scrutiny, or unforeseen personal factors.
There’s clearly been a spike in activity on the 2025 market. While there’s no official indication of an early exit, punters tend to react to political mood shifts quickly – and this sudden weight of money backing a short-term departure is noteworthy. It could be punters positioning for value, or it could suggest rumours are beginning to swirl beneath the surface.”
Other years remain in the mix, with 2026 priced at 7/2 (22.2%), 2027 at 11/2 (15.4%), and 2028 at 5/1 (16.7%).
With such a broad spread of possibilities, the market reflects both confidence in Starmer’s leadership and the unpredictable nature of British politics in a post election landscape.
| Year | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2029 or later | 6/4 | 40.0% |
| 2026 | 7/2 | 22.2% |
| 2025 | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| 2028 | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| 2027 | 11/2 | 15.4% |
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Labour have moved to the head of the betting market for the next UK General Election, marking the first time in 18 months that the party has been priced as favourites to win the most seats.
Star Sports have cut Labour’s odds from 15/8 to 13/8 over the past week, pushing Keir Starmer’s party ahead of Reform UK in the market.
Next General Election Odds
| Party | Current Odds | Previous Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 13/8 | 15/8 |
| Reform UK | 15/8 | 13/8 |
| Restore Britain | 10/1 | 20/1 |
| Conservatives | 6/1 | – |
| Greens | 17/2 | – |
Reform, led by Nigel Farage, have drifted from 13/8 to 15/8 during the same period. The shift follows the launch of Restore Britain by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, a development bookmakers believe could split the right-leaning vote.
Restore Britain has shortened from 20/1 to 10/1 in the market. The party now sits closer to Green Party of England and Wales at 17/2 and the Conservative Party at 6/1.
Election Polling from YouGov
| Party | Polling (%) |
|---|---|
| Reform UK | 24% |
| Labour | 19% |
| Conservatives | 18% |
| Greens | 17% |
| Liberal Democrats | 13% |
Despite the market shift, opinion polls tell a different story.
Polling from YouGov places Reform on 24%, ahead of Labour on 19%. The Conservatives are on 18%, the Greens on 17% and the Liberal Democrats on 13%.
Bookmakers are also offering odds on the next permanent prime minister after Starmer.
Labour figures lead that market, with Angela Rayner priced at 7/2 and Wes Streeting at 6/1. Farage is 7/1, while Ed Miliband is available at 8/1.
Market leader Laila Cunningham heads the betting at 2/1, though she remains a relatively low-profile figure compared to some of the more established political names in the list.
Her position at the top of the market suggests bookmakers believe she has strong momentum heading into the early stages of the race.
Incumbent mayor Sadiq Khan is priced at 11/4 as he eyes another term. However, his tenure has faced mounting criticism over issues including crime rates, transport concerns and housing pressures.
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While he retains significant support across parts of the capital, dissatisfaction in other areas has left the race looking more open than in previous cycles.
Former Strictly and Apprentice star Tom Skinner has also entered the market.
Skinner first rose to prominence as a contestant on The Apprentice, where he was fired after the ninth task, narrowly missing out on the interview stage.
More recently, he competed on the 2025 series of Strictly Come Dancing, finishing bottom of the leaderboard.
Despite his media profile, Skinner has previously downplayed suggestions of entering politics.
In January, he said: “I’ve been asked so many times to get into politics but I don’t really understand it enough,” and has also described himself as “too nice for politics”.
| Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Laila Cunningham | 2/1 |
| Sadiq Khan | 11/4 |
| Dawn Butler | 9/1 |
| Rosena Allin-Khan | 14/1 |
| James Cleverly | 14/1 |
| Wes Streeting | 14/1 |
| Boris Johnson | 16/1 |
| Zia Yusuf | 18/1 |
| Ant Middleton | 18/1 |
| Mete Corban | 22/1 |
| Georgia Gould | 22/1 |
| Thomas Skinner | 22/1 |
| Jeremy Corbyn | 22/1 |
| Penny Mordaunt | 28/1 |
Nevertheless, he has become increasingly vocal on political issues, particularly those affecting the capital. Skinner has been openly critical of current mayor Sadiq Khan, accusing him of “ruining” London.
He has also expressed support for Donald Trump, writing in a now-deleted social media post following the 2024 US presidential election: “I love Trump I think he is brilliant.”
Skinner’s political connections extend beyond social media commentary. He has met US vice president JD Vance as well as former Conservative MP Robert Jenrick.
With his outspoken views on London and growing engagement in political debate, speculation continues that he could stand in the 2028 London mayoral election.
For now, he remains an outsider in the betting market at 22/1 to become the next mayor.
Restore Britain are priced at 16/1 to win the most seats at the next UK general election.
The election is not scheduled to take place before August 2029, leaving significant time for the political landscape to shift.
Rupert Lowe’s newly formed party has made an early impression in polling. A recent Find Out Now survey placed Restore Britain on 10 per cent, level with the Liberal Democrats, three points behind the Conservatives and five adrift of Labour.
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The party was established following Lowe’s expulsion from Reform UK after allegations of bullying, claims he denies. Lowe had also been publicly critical of Reform leader Nigel Farage in the months prior to his departure.
While Reform UK has drawn much of its support from voters on the right, often at the expense of the Conservatives, Restore Britain has positioned itself further to the right still. The party has argued that Reform was “watering down” its stance on the deportation of illegal migrants.
Restore Britain has already secured backing from Advance UK, previously led by former Reform deputy leader Ben Habib. The party has also received support from Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, widely known as Tommy Robinson.
There are, however, concerns within right-leaning political circles that the emergence of Restore Britain could fragment the vote. Such a split could potentially cost Reform UK seats at a future election and weaken the broader right-wing challenge.
Among its early policy announcements, Restore Britain has stated on social media that it would ban foreign nationals from voting in British elections and repeal the Gender Recognition Act.