Politics
Keir Starmer odds to Leave in 2025 Slashed to 5/1, with 70% of Bets Now on Labour Leader to Step Down This Year
The odds on Sir Keir Starmer leaving his post as Labour leader in 2025 have been cut to 5/1, amid growing speculation over his long-term future.
Bookmakers report that 70% of all bets placed in the past week are backing Starmer to depart within the year – a significant shift just weeks after Labour’s landslide election victory.
The latest market sees “2029 or later” remain the most likely outcome at 6/4 (40%), suggesting a belief that Starmer will serve a full term or more.
But the sharp rise in bets on a 2025 exit (now at a 16.7% implied probability) points to mounting uncertainty – possibly driven by internal party pressures, public scrutiny, or unforeseen personal factors.
There’s clearly been a spike in activity on the 2025 market. While there’s no official indication of an early exit, punters tend to react to political mood shifts quickly – and this sudden weight of money backing a short-term departure is noteworthy. It could be punters positioning for value, or it could suggest rumours are beginning to swirl beneath the surface.”
Other years remain in the mix, with 2026 priced at 7/2 (22.2%), 2027 at 11/2 (15.4%), and 2028 at 5/1 (16.7%).
With such a broad spread of possibilities, the market reflects both confidence in Starmer’s leadership and the unpredictable nature of British politics in a post election landscape.
| Year | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2029 or later | 6/4 | 40.0% |
| 2026 | 7/2 | 22.2% |
| 2025 | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| 2028 | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| 2027 | 11/2 | 15.4% |
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Keir Starmer’s future as Labour leader and UK Prime Minister is under growing scrutiny after a turbulent first year in Downing Street, with bookmakers now cutting odds on several rising figures inside the party.
| Candidate | Odds | Implied Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Wes Streeting | 7/2 | 22.2% |
| Andy Burnham | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Shabana Mahmood | 7/1 | 12.5% |
Labour stormed back to power in last July’s General Election, securing a landslide victory and ending 14 years of Conservative rule. But the honeymoon period is already showing signs of strain.
Starmer’s personal ratings have slumped, Labour’s showing in the 2025 local elections was branded “dire” by party insiders, and criticism of the government’s budget statement has intensified questions over whether his leadership can withstand another year of political pressure.
Those close to Starmer have publicly defended him but behind the scenes, attention is shifting toward who could step in if the party decides a change is needed.
Streeting Installed as Clear Favourite
Wes Streeting, MP for Ilford North and the current Health Secretary, has been installed as the 7/2 favourite to become the next Labour leader, according to Skybet.
The outspoken frontline minister has found himself at the centre of Westminster gossip, with reports claiming he is being positioned as an alternative to Starmer.
Streeting dismissed the rumours with a tongue-in-cheek swipe at reality TV drama, saying:
“I think whoever’s been briefing this has been watching too much Celebrity Traitors — it’s about the worst attack on a faithful I’ve seen since Joe Marler was kicked out in the final!”
Despite the light-hearted response, his positioning in the betting markets reflects a notable shift in sentiment among political observers.
Burnham and Mahmood Close Behind
Trailing Streeting but still firmly in contention are two heavyweight figures with strong support bases inside the Labour movement:
Andy Burnham (7/1) – The Mayor of Greater Manchester remains a popular figure nationwide and has long been tipped as a potential future leader.
Shabana Mahmood (7/1) – The high profile Secretary of State is increasingly seen as one of the party’s sharpest communicators and a serious contender if the top job becomes available.
A Leadership Question Westminster Won’t Ignore
While Starmer remains firmly in post, political insiders admit he is entering a critical phase of his premiership.
With economic pressures biting, internal unrest growing, and the Conservatives beginning to regroup, senior Labour figures fear that a weakened Starmer could become a liability ahead of the next General Election cycle.
For now, the Prime Minister’s allies insist he will weather the storm but as bookmakers continue to shorten the odds on his potential successors, the question of “what comes next for Labour” is quickly becoming one of Westminster’s biggest talking points.
Politics
Jeremy Clarkson Tipped to Run Against Ed Miliband as Bookies Slash Odds on TV Star Becoming MP
Jeremy Clarkson has become one of the most talked-about names in British politics this week after bookmakers slashed the odds on the TV personality entering Parliament, following his hint that he could challenge Ed Miliband for his Doncaster North seat at the next general election writes Dave James.
The former Top Gear presenter and star of Clarkson’s Farm is now 2/1 with Coral to win a seat in Parliament his shortest ever odds and 100/1 to one day become Prime Minister. The surge in betting activity came after Clarkson posted a teasing message on X (formerly Twitter), where he wrote:
“People of Doncaster North. Are you happy with your MP? Would you like it if someone from your neck of the woods kicked him out?”
The post instantly fuelled speculation that the 64-year-old, who was born in Doncaster, could be planning a shock move into politics, with many fans urging him to take on the Labour heavyweight.
Jeremy Clarkson’s hint about running for Doncaster North has sent betting markets into overdrive.
The Doncaster North seat has been held by Energy Secretary Ed Miliband since 2005, but the former Labour leader is under growing pressure within Keir Starmer’s cabinet, with bookmakers also pricing him at 2/1 to be the next cabinet minister to leave.
Reports suggest tensions are mounting over Miliband’s net-zero policies, which may clash with Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ upcoming budget as the government looks to balance green goals with economic realities.
While Clarkson has yet to confirm whether he will formally stand, his outspoken views on farming, the environment, and government red tape have made him an unlikely hero for rural voters and a potential thorn in Labour’s side if he does enter the political arena.
Political betting markets often mirror breaking headlines, and this year’s Nobel Peace Prize race is no exception.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump has surged to 6/4 favourite with William Hill after unveiling a proposed Gaza peace plan, leapfrogging other global contenders.
The Nobel Peace Prize, awarded annually by the Norwegian Nobel Committee, recognises individuals and organisations that have made significant contributions to peace and humanitarian efforts worldwide.
While the award itself is decided by committee vote, bookmakers offer markets that allow punters to speculate on who might win turning international diplomacy into a betting special.
| Candidate / Organisation | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump Sr | 6/4 | 40.0% |
| Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms | 5/2 | 28.6% |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 7/2 | 22.2% |
| UNRWA / Philippe Lazzarini | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 9/1 | 10.0% |
| Alexei Gorinov | 14/1 | 6.7% |
Trump’s Gaza Peace Plan Sparks Betting Surge
Trump’s rise in the odds follows a high-profile meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. During the talks, Trump unveiled a 20-point Gaza peace proposal, which included:
- An immediate ceasefire in Gaza
- The safe release of Israeli hostages
- The establishment of an international “Board of Peace” to oversee governance
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While the plan has been met with both interest and criticism on the international stage, it has undeniably boosted Trump’s profile in the Nobel betting markets.
His odds of 6/4 now imply a 40% chance of winning, making him the bookmakers’ clear frontrunner.
Behind Trump in the market, Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms have emerged as strong contenders at 5/2.
These community led volunteer groups have been central in providing humanitarian aid amid Sudan’s ongoing conflict, coordinating relief efforts in areas devastated by violence and displacement.
Their growing recognition on the international stage has been reflected in the betting markets, with their odds shortening significantly from outsiders to genuine challengers.
Other Leading Contenders in 2025
Beyond Trump and Sudan’s grassroots groups, several high-profile names remain in contention:
Yulia Navalnaya (7/2): The widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, widely seen as a symbol of democratic resistance and political courage.
Philippe Lazzarini / UNRWA (7/1): Representing the UN Relief and Works Agency, Lazzarini’s inclusion reflects global focus on humanitarian operations in Gaza.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy (9/1): The Ukrainian president remains on the list, though his odds suggest a lower probability compared to leading candidates.
Alexei Gorinov (14/1): A Russian political prisoner and outspoken critic of the war in Ukraine, whose nomination underscores the Nobel’s recognition of human rights defenders.
While odds provide a snapshot of betting market sentiment, they should not be mistaken for genuine prediction models. Bookmakers set prices based on a mix of public interest, media coverage, and betting volume. This means candidates with high name recognition, such as Donald Trump often appear shorter in the odds than less publicised but serious contenders.
For punters, Nobel Peace Prize betting is as much about following international headlines as it is about weighing the Nobel Committee’s likely decision-making.
Donald Trump’s move to 6/4 favourite illustrates how quickly political developments can reshape betting markets. However, history shows that the Nobel Committee often rewards sustained humanitarian work over headline-grabbing proposals.
As such, while Trump leads the market, contenders like Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms or Yulia Navalnaya remain serious possibilities for the 2025 award.