The odds on Sir Keir Starmer leaving his post as Labour leader in 2025 have been cut to 5/1, amid growing speculation over his long-term future.
Bookmakers report that 70% of all bets placed in the past week are backing Starmer to depart within the year – a significant shift just weeks after Labour’s landslide election victory.
The latest market sees “2029 or later” remain the most likely outcome at 6/4 (40%), suggesting a belief that Starmer will serve a full term or more.
But the sharp rise in bets on a 2025 exit (now at a 16.7% implied probability) points to mounting uncertainty – possibly driven by internal party pressures, public scrutiny, or unforeseen personal factors.
Other years remain in the mix, with 2026 priced at 7/2 (22.2%), 2027 at 11/2 (15.4%), and 2028 at 5/1 (16.7%).
With such a broad spread of possibilities, the market reflects both confidence in Starmer’s leadership and the unpredictable nature of British politics in a post election landscape.
| Year | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2029 or later | 6/4 | 40.0% |
| 2026 | 7/2 | 22.2% |
| 2025 | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| 2028 | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| 2027 | 11/2 | 15.4% |
Where can I bet on Keir Starmer Leaving?
You can bet on Keir Starmer leaving with Bet365. You can also get £30 in free bets for only £10 initial deposit. You will find that the major brands all like to offer odds on Political markets.